ICIS, a leading source of commodity intelligence, and CPCIF, China’s foremost organization for the petroleum and chemical industry, have released a study analyzing how the European Union’s new circularity regulations will influence global demand for recycled plastics, particularly affecting China’s chemical sector. The report highlights significant implications across packaging, automotive, and textile industries.
The study forecasts a substantial increase in demand for recycled content. This is driven by the EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) and upcoming legislation in other sectors. By 2030, EU manufacturers will require approximately 5.4 million tonnes annually of recycled polyethylene (rPE), polypropylene (rPP), and polyethylene terephthalate (rPET) to meet minimum recycled content targets. This is expected to double to 11.5 million tonnes per year by 2040.
Due to limitations in mechanical recycling, chemical recycling is projected to play a critical role in meeting the demand for recycled polyolefins. The nature of global trade means EU regulations will have spillover effects, compelling exporters worldwide to adopt recycled content standards to access the EU market. This is prompting changes in sourcing strategies and increasing demand for certified recycled materials globally.
China is expected to play a key part in fulfilling these requirements. Projections indicate that over 1 million tonnes of recycled plastics will be supplied annually to the EU by 2040. While this volume is modest relative to China’s total market, it carries strategic importance. This prompts investments in R&D, standards alignment, and supply chain innovation. Chinese exporters are increasingly adopting proactive compliance strategies. They’re also investing in certified recycled and bio-based materials to differentiate themselves.
Helen McGeough, ICIS’s Global Analyst Team Lead, noted that EU regulations are evolving into a worldwide market force. They are shaping industrial strategies and fostering domestic reforms in China. She emphasized that compliance presents opportunities for innovation, market access, and leadership in the global circular economy.
